The last few days have been hectic, causing some big time shakeups heading into Thursday’s draft. As if there wasn’t enough uncretainity surrounding this year’s draft class, the past few days have featured Joel Embiid suffering a stress fracture in his foot and Dario Saric announcing he likely won’t join the NBA for another two years. As a result of their news, the two will inevitably fall down the draft board Thursday night. But how far? That remains to be seen.
The Embiid injury was brutal for the Cavs, picking first, and the Sixers, picking third. Milwaukee might’ve gotten lucky with it though. The Cavs seemed to have made up their minds on Embiid before the injury. Now, they’ll have to go back to the drawing board and decide between Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins. The Sixers seemed destined to have their top target, Wiggins, fall into their lap with the third pick. Now, it’s almost a guarantee he’ll be off the board by then.
I continued to say I’d peg Parker as the first pick until news came out about Embiid acing a physical examining his back. Well, things went a lot worse for Embiid than anyone envisioned. Now Cleveland has to decide between Parker and Wiggins.
I’m torn on this one to be honest. Both sides of the argument have so much validity. Parker is NBA ready and can get you twenty a night. But he’s a liability defensively, doesn’t have the ceiling that Wiggins does, and plays a similar style to Anthony Bennett. As for Wiggins, his upside is arguably the highest in the draft class, he’s insanely athletic, and he plays NBA caliber defense at this point in his career. But he’s still pretty raw offensively, seems like he lacks a killer instinct, and doesn’t supply the leadership and maturity that Parker does.
Despite all the uncertainties surrounding the prospects, one thing that seems certain to happen on draft night is trading picks. Reports have indicated that the Sixers, Celtics, Lakers, and Kings are all likely to be active in the top 10. As I’ve done in the previous mock drafts, I’m going to ignore trades when picking players.
So how does all this effect the first round? It’s time to play GM again. Here’s what I would do with each pick. Not what I think will necessarily happen. Let’s get to it.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers – Andrew Wiggins (Kansas)
The Cavs can’t mess this pick up. Cleveland whiffed on Anthony Bennett last year, and Dion Waiters the year before may have been a reach as well. The choice is extremely tough. They could take Parker and play it safe, only to see Wiggins reach his perennial All-Star potential. Or they could swing for the fences with Wiggins, pass on Parker’s sure fire talent, and watch Wiggins never fully develop into a star.
My decision essentially boiled down to three ideas: Wiggins’ potential, Cleveland’s need for defense, and Parker’s fit in the Cavs’ offense. Wiggins’ ceiling is higher than Parker’s. But Parker is the most NBA ready prospect in the draft. However, Wiggins’ athleticism, length, and ability to play multiple positions project him as a great scorer down the road. He has All-Star potential, but I’m still not completely convinced he’ll reach it. While his offensive game is still raw, his defensive capabilities make him ready to play from day one. The Cavs’ allowed 101.5 points per game last season and need a defender on the perimeter, which Wiggins can give them. Not only is Wiggins a great defender, the main knack on Parker is his poor defense. Lastly, Wiggins is a much better fit in Cleveland. Parker plays a very similar game to Anthony Bennett. And like Parker, Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters are also guys that need the ball in their hands. Wiggins’ lack of a killer instinct might not be such a bad trait in Cleveland. He does enough right now offensively to contribute. He’ll still be able to get his points, but when he’s surrounded by talent, the pressure won’t be on him.
2. Milwaukee Bucks – Jabari Parker (Duke)
Parker can be a great fit alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo. A versatile shooting guard with a 7-foot-3 wingspan and Parker’s scoring skill set can play off each other well. Parker could easily average nearly twenty a game next season. Milwaukee is unavoidably in the rebuilding process. Parker could step in and gain significant experience in his rookie season as he turns into a go-to-guy for the Bucks offensively. It could be a perfect place for him to grow and develop into a more complete and aggressive scorer.
3. Philadelphia 76ers – Dante Exum (Australia)
Exum isn’t a natural point guard. He operates well with the ball in his hands and he can create offensively. But there is a lot of two guard to his game. That could work alongside Michael Carter-Williams. It’ll be interesting to see if they can be compatible. Either way, though, the Sixers should draft for talent. Their bodies are very similar, roughly 6-foot-6 and 190 pounds. That’s tough for opponents to match up against. But both are inconsistent shooters. They’ll space the floor well, though, and create scoring opportunities by getting in the lane. Philly will definitely have to take a knockdown shooter with the tenth pick.
Don’t count Embiid out on this pick, by the way. The Nerlens Noel selection last year displayed the Sixers’ patience. After all, they won fifteen games last season, so it’s not like they’re going anywhere this year.
4. Orlando Magic – Joel Embiid (Kansas)
I think many will argue against this, and I can understand why. But his selection is contingent upon the results of his surgery. If the operation goes well and the doctors think Embiid can make a full recovery, I’m gambling on him. The main reason for the gamble, though, is the Magic’s second lottery pick at number 12.
Orlando is another team that can’t avoid the rebuilding process. They have some nice pieces in place, but not enough to actually do anything next season. General manager Rob Hennigan has to be extremely nervous about this, and rightfully so. But he can potentially land the best player in this draft class with the fourth pick. That’s a steal that’ll be hard to pass up on.
5. Utah Jazz – Marcus Smart (Oklahoma State)
The Jazz need depth and size at the point guard position. At 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, Smart has an NBA body. He has the physicality and toughness that Burke lacks. But I also don’t see Smart as a natural point guard. I think I like him more at the two. That would make him a solid fit with Burke. His do-or-die winning attitude is something the young Jazz squad could use.
6. Boston Celtics – Noah Vonleh (Indiana)
Vonleh is efficient on both ends of the floor. He gives the Celtics a rim protector defensively and a stretch four offensively. His post game is a work in progress and he may take some time to adjust to the NBA. But a three point shooting threat on a 6-foot-10 forward with a 37-inch vertical is promising. He wasn’t used correctly at Indiana and his performance suffered as a result, yet he still managed to average nearly a double-double.
7. Los Angeles Lakers – Julius Randle (Kentucky)
Randle’s foot injury doesn’t seem to be too concerning. He has an NBA body and will be ready to contribute for the Lakers right away. There’s a good chance Pau Gasol won’t be around next season, which is why Randle makes a lot of sense. His uptempo motor will be appreciated by Kobe Bryant.
8. Sacramento Kings – Aaron Gordon (Arizona)
It took me some time to come around, but now I’m on board with Gordon. Intangibles wise, his NBA comparison is Blake Griffin. Energy wise, he has some Joakim Noah in him. Gordon’s offensive game needs a lot of work. His jump shot is ugly and off. But he has a crazy motor and he can defend better than just about anyone besides Wiggins in this draft class. I like him next to DeMarcus Cousins.
9. Charlotte Hornets – Doug McDermott (Creighton)
The Hornets ranked 23rd in the NBA in three point shooting percentage last season. Adding a shooter with range is one of their biggest needs. McDermott will be able to give them that and then some. His skill set is phenomenal and his shooting is exactly what Charlotte needs. He seems like a perfect fit for the Hornets who might lose Josh McRoberts this season in free agency. McBuckets scores from all over and can open the floor up for Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson.
10. Philadelphia 76ers – Nik Stauskas (Michigan)
Before this pick, Philly is looking at a core of Michael Carter-Williams, Thaddeus Young, Noel, and Exum (in this scenario). All that’s lacking in that group is a shooter. Enter Stauskas. I rank Stauskas slightly above McDermott in terms of shooting. With him playing off of Carter-Williams and Exum, points shouldn’t be hard to come by for the Sixers’ backcourt.
11. Denver Nuggets – Dario Saric (Croatia)
This might be a bit of reach for Saric since he won’t be coming over next season. But in terms of talent, Saric is a top 10 pick. The Nuggets will have to be patient. In a couple years, though, the payoff will be huge. Multiple guys on Denver’s roster will be coming back from injury next year, so I don’t see their season going as poorly as it did this year.
12. Orlando Magic – Gary Harris (Michigan State)
Aaron Afflalo’s name has been floating around in trade scenarios lately. After taking Embiid at four, the Magic can replace Afflalo with a true two-way player in Harris. Pairing him with Oladipo would make the Orlando backcourt a lockdown zone defensively. Offensively, he can stroke it from deep and play alongside Oladipo, who isn’t a true point guard.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves – Elfrid Payton (Louisiana-Lafayette)
Kevin Love might not be the only one the Timberwolves lose soon. Ricky Rubio might be out of the picture in Minnesota as well. Payton is quick and great at getting into the lane. His shooting needs a lot of work. But his ability to create, the rise his game is taking, and his toughness/defense are a lot to pass on.
14. Phoenix Suns – Zach LaVine (UCLA)
LaVine is a project. He isn’t NBA ready right now. But there are few players in this draft class with more potential. His athleticism is out of this world and he has a shooting stroke from deep. Phoenix could use LaVine in a few interesting ways. I actually like him on the floor with Dragic and Bledsoe. At 6-foot-6 he’s a nice fit next to the bigger Dragic. LaVine is a killer in transition and the Suns like to get out and run.
15. Atlanta Hawks – Jusuf Nurkic (Bosnia)
The Hawks continue their success of drafting international players by taking Nurkic. Their frontcourt already consists of All-Stars Paul Millsap and Al Horford. And Pero Antic showcased his ability to stretch the floor and give teams problems against Indiana in the playoffs. Now they add the huge Nurkic to dominate inside. He’s going to need sometime to develop but he has great scoring instincts and you can’t teach his size.
16. Chicago Bulls – Adreian Payne (Michigan State)
The Bulls are a team that needs shooting and frontcourt depth. Payne is the perfect blend of both. He’s a stretch four who can stroke it from deep. A high character guy with a great motor and experience is just the guy the Bulls need. His and Joakim Noah’s motors would be dynamic duo.
17. Boston Celtics – Rodney Hood (Duke)
Boston needs a wing who can shoot the ball and not many did that better than Hood last season. A 42 percent three point shooter is exactly what the Celtics need alongside Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley. They already added Vonleh to their frontcourt with the sixth pick, and now they get a wing with great size and a deep shooting threat.
18. Phoenix Suns – James Young (Kentucky)
Since Phoenix needs depth at the wing, and LaVine is a project, why not add more shooting? Young was a little inconsistent this past season from three, but the mechanics are there. He also has great size for his position. The Suns can pick and choose what his role will be due to his ability to play shooting guard and small forward.
19. Chicago Bulls – Shabazz Napier (UConn)
The Bulls need a backup behind Derrick Rose. And word has it that the Heat are after Napier. If he’s still on the board here, the Bulls take him to grow under Rose and keep him out of Miami. He’s tough as nails, experienced, and can play on both ends of the floor. Napier is bit undersized for the point guard position, but he hasn’t let that hold him back thus far.
20. Toronto Raptors – Tyler Ennis (Syracuse)
Between Kyle Lowry and Greivis Vasquez, one of the two will be out of Toronto next season. Ennis will be a great replacement for either. The Canada native is as poised and under control as they come. He’s essentially mistake-free and thrives in clutch situations. The Raptors could use a guy like that as they look to push further in the Eastern Conference playoffs next year.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder – T.J. Warren (NC State)
Kyle Anderson was hard to pass up with this pick. But the Thunder need another scorer. Aside from guys like Parker and McDermott, Warren is probably the best scorer in this draft class. He definitely needs to become a better shooter, but his natural scoring ability gives the Thunder another offensive weapon. With scorers like Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on the floor, Warren spaces the floor even more.
22. Memphis Grizzlies – P.J. Hairston (Texas Legends via North Carolina)
Memphis needs youth and depth on the wing and Hairston is a deadly three point shooter. He’s also great at getting to the rim and finishing through contact or drawing fouls thanks to his big frame at 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds. Mike Conley needs more shooting threats on the perimeter in order to open things up inside, and Hairston is one of the top shooters in the draft.
23. Utah Jazz – Mitch McGary (Michigan)
Derrick Favors’ name has been tossed around in trade rumors, likely making his days in Utah numbered. McGary could be a great replacement. I get the feeling McGary is healthy. ESPN’s Chad Ford has reported that there is speculation that McGary’s agent shut him down in team workouts due to a likely promise from a team picking late in the first round. The Jazz should make a move first and snatch the big man up.
24. Charlotte Hornets – Jordan Clarkson (Missouri)
A backup point guard is a need in Charlotte. With Walker being undersized, though successful, for an NBA point guard, the Hornets can add Clarkson. He’s a big point guard at 6-foot-5, he’s athletic, and he’s versatile. He’d even be able to play off of Walker, which gives them an interesting backcourt if Stauskas or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are on the floor at the same time.
25. Houston Rockets – Jarnell Stokes (Tennessee)
The Rockets need more of an interior presence, especially if they get rid of Omer Asik. Terrence Jones has been solid at the four. But Stokes adds an extremely physical body and more rebounding. With Stokes and Howard, crashing the boards against the Rockets’ will be hard to do.
26. Miami Heat – Kyle Anderson (UCLA)
ESPN’s Chad Ford brought up a great point on why the Heat should take Anderson: what Boris Diaw did to them in the NBA Finals. Anderson’s game is strikingly similar to Diaw’s. Miami could turn what killed them (Diaw) into a weapon of their own. Anderson is a 6-foot-9 point forward whose an efficient scorer, a smart player, and a facilitator. Sounds like a great running mate for LeBron James.
27. Phoenix Suns – Clint Capela (Switzerland)
This pick had to be an international player. Bringing three rookies over next season just isn’t realistic. Capela is far from developed – maybe the least NBA-ready player in this first round. However, his upside is high. He’s an explosive and athletic shot blocker. If they can draft and stash him, give him time to develop, then bring him over, he could become a valuable asset down the road.
28. Los Angeles Clippers – K.J. McDaniels (Clemson)
As a very athletic forward, who could be great if he develops a consistent jump shot, McDaniels will space the floor for the Clippers. He also gives their frontcourt some more size and length. He’s a sensational shot blocker for a wing. His versatility, athleticism, and defensive capabilities will give the Clippers a different kind of wing on their roster.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder – Jordan Adams (UCLA)
Adams is a gifted scorer. He’d be able to give the Thunder some much needed depth coming off the bench. Reggie Jackson is an emerging player who could possibly be used as a trade asset for Oklahoma City. That idea, coupled with Derek Fisher’s retirement, carves out a place for Adams.
30. San Antonio Spurs – Cleanthony Early (Wichita State)
Early provides another scoring threat through size and versatility. Although they won’t be extremely significant minutes, I think Early can contribute in his rookie season. He plays tough and knows how to put the ball in the basket.
Brendan Garrity 